The global economy is undergoing a transformation in which geopolitical risks are becoming the primary source of instability, displacing trade tensions and economic policy uncertainty. This was the warning issued today (May 19, 2026) by the UN Trade and Development Council in its report. Trade and Development Outlook 2026: The global economy faces a geopolitical challengewhere it points out that the global system is moving from a phase marked by supply disruptions and inflation to a more fragile scenario, in which prolonged uncertainty could lead to shortages and greater financial stress.
The United Nations agency warns that this change redefines the map of global risksWhile trade tensions have predominated in recent years, geopolitical conflicts now directly impact trade, investment, and financial markets, generating greater volatility and uncertainty.
In this context, Developing economies—including those in Latin America—appear to be the most exposed.They simultaneously face higher energy, food and fertilizer costs, pressure on their currencies, tighter financing conditions and lower confidence from international investors.
UNCTAD also notes that some of the resilience observed in 2025 was driven by trade growth in developing economies, but warns that this dynamic is beginning to weaken. While global merchandise trade continues to show some dynamism, it is increasingly concentrated in sectors linked to artificial intelligence., such as semiconductors and data processing equipment, while the rest of the global economy shows weaker performance.
Along those lines, the organization projects that Global trade growth is expected to slow from 4,7% in 2025 to a range of between 1,5% and 2,5% in 2026, affected by uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions in supply chains and shipping.
The report also highlights the growing pressure on food security, noting that Rising energy prices increase costs of fertilizers and generates inflationary pressures on food, especially in developing economies. This is compounded by financial volatility and tighter credit conditions, which affect both companies in the sector and governments with less fiscal space. In this context, UNCTAD warns that food security no longer depends solely on availability or prices, but increasingly on the financial stability of the global system.
Finally, the organization emphasizes that, despite the challenging scenario,There is room to strengthen resilience through increased investment in clean energy, a faster energy transition, more predictable trade rules, and stronger financial safeguards for developing countries.
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