The trade surplus reached a new all-time high, but behind the numbers lies a less visible reality: export concentration, a drop in productive imports, and a model that does not yet guarantee sustainability. Argentina celebrates the result, but foreign trade warns that the strategy remains pending.
1. We export more, yes. But we import less because we produce less.
The INDEC shows that imports fell 7% year-on-year, with a decrease of 13,6% in quantitiesThis is not efficiency: It is a contraction.
Fewer capital goods, fewer inputs, fewer parts and accessories. Less importing today means less production tomorrow.
The surplus does not arise from an accelerating economy: it arises from an economy that It shrinks.
2. The export boom is in energy. And that's a blessing… and a risk.
The rubricor Fuels and Energy grew 167 %explaining a good part of the export surge.
But when a country depends on a single engine:
- it becomes vulnerable to international prices,
- It is subject to boom-and-bust cycles,
- re-primiza its export matrix,
- It runs the risk of a Creole “Dutch disease”.
Oil can give us dollars. But it doesn't give us diversification, skilled employment
ni industrial density.
3. A surplus does not imply competitiveness: it implies constraint.
The drop in imports is not a sign of health: it is a sign of slowing down.
When a country grows, it matters more. When a country adjusts, it matters less.
Argentina's surplus is, in part, a reflection of an economy that It demands less because it produces less.
4. Trading partners are showing signs that we shouldn't ignore.
Data from INDEC reveals deficits in:
- Brazil-USD 106 million
- European Union-USD 98 million
- Paraguay-USD 370 million
And surpluses with the US and China are largely explained by the fall in importsnot because of a structural export leap.
Argentina is not gaining systemic competitiveness: it is winning surplus due to internal contraction.
5. We export more, but we still export little.
Even with a record:
- We export less than Chile,
- less than Vietnam,
- less than Malaysia,
- less than Poland,
- less than Türkiye.
Argentina's problem is not the surplus. Argentina's problem is the scale.
A country of 47 million inhabitants cannot be content with exporting like a country of 6.
6. The surplus is not sustainable without an agenda for customs facilitation and modernization.
If Argentina wants this cycle to be more than just a parenthesis, it needs:
- modern port infrastructure and logistics,
- interoperable and 100% digital customs,
- functional bi-oceanic corridors,
- environmental certifications for CBAM,
- Legal certainty for investments,
- an exchange rate regime that does not penalize exporters.
Without this, the surplus is a ceiling, not a floor.
7. The challenge is not to sustain the surplus: it is to sustain export capacity.
The country needs a strategy, not statistics.
A state policy that:
- diversify the export matrix,
- reduce energy dependence,
- increase industrial productivity,
- facilitate trade instead of managing it,
- transform Customs into a platform for competitiveness,
- integrate Argentina into global value chains.
A surplus is a snapshot. Competitiveness is a movie.
8.Conclusion: exporting more oil is not the same as exporting more of the country.
The sales record is good news. But it's not a model. It's not a direction. It's not a guarantee.
Argentina does not need a record surplus: needs a sustainable surplus.
And that is only achieved when a country stops depending on a boom and starts depending on itself.
The author has a degree in Administration and a Master's degree in International Relations (UNCBA), with an outstanding career as an official of the Customs Regulation and Control Agency (ARCA) for 39 years. A former OAS and Spanish Government fellow, he has been a university professor at undergraduate and graduate levels in various Argentine universities for 33 years, and a member of the Soft Landing World Network.
Foreign Trade specialist and independent consultant, he is the author of the books: "Customs Operations from A to Z", as well as"Intangibles: how to export services and not die trying"He has held important positions such as Deputy Director General of Metropolitan Customs Operations, Regional Director of the Waterway, and Administrator of the Customs of Córdoba and Rosario. He has served as First General Counsel at the General Directorate of Customs – Aduana Córdoba, and currently works as a foreign trade consultant.
