Several factors indicate that 2026 could become a record-breaking year for Argentine foreign trade, says the Center for Research in Export and International Business (CIEN), directed by Gustavo Scarpetta.
If the forecasts are confirmed, “Exports would reach USD 90.500 billion and imports USD 81.500 billion, with a surplus of close to USD 9.000 billion”According to the Market Expectations Survey (REM-BCRA), at these levels, “Exports would be the highest in history, surpassing the current record of USD 88.268 billion from 2022”.
CIEN also highlighted that “The 2026 performance is supported by a very good second half of 2025 and by three engines: agriculture (soybeans/corn + fine crops), energy (Vaca Muerta) and mining”.
Global scenario and Argentine opportunity
Globally, the World Trade Organization (WTO) describes a 2025 with stronger-than-expected merchandise trade, driven by the “frontloading” —advance imports in anticipation of tariffs—, demand for goods related to artificial intelligence, and relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions. However, it anticipates that 2026 will be weaker due to uncertainty in trade policy and the effect of tariffs already in place.
By region, during 2025, year-on-year growth in merchandise export volume was positive in most areas, with Asia leading the way, while North America advanced more moderately and Europe lagged behind. South America, Central America, and the Caribbean maintained a high growth rate, as did Africa, while the Middle East experienced more limited expansion. In terms of imports, all regions showed positive year-on-year changes, with South America and Africa again standing out.
In this global context, Argentina is on track for a historic performance in foreign trade. According to CIEN, based on the BCRA's REM (Market Expectations Survey), 2026 will combine record exports, a significant surplus, and a record high in imports. The analysis emphasizes that the main challenge will be ensuring that this record import level is sustained. "Well"That is, that it is associated with investment and productivity, and not just with an increase in consumption.
Sectoral drivers and markets that propel the export record
Focusing on the local level, CIEN expands on the information regarding the 2026 outlook, based on three sectoral drivers. agriculture and agro-industry, Soybeans and corn, driven by current volumes and prices, are expected to contribute approximately USD 30.000 billion, roughly a third of total exports. This performance is further bolstered by the winter crop harvest, including wheat, barley, and emerging crops such as camelina and carinata, which are projected to generate additional foreign exchange earnings.
En EnergyVaca Muerta is consolidating itself as a key driver from the second half of 2025 and a central traction factor for 2026. The sector's exports reached USD 6.000 billion and are projected to reach between USD 8.000 billion and 9.000 billion in 2026, with prospects of reaching USD 30.000 billion by 2030, becoming the main engine of a new export record in 2027.
La mining is. complete the diagram as a “mining boost” Additionally, exports are close to USD 5.000 billion. The RIGI and lithium development could significantly strengthen this contribution.
These engines are in addition to two strategic marketsOn the one hand, there is the agreement with the European Union, which has been under negotiation for more than 25 years; and on the other hand, there is the possible impact of the political-commercial relationship with the United States, given the rapprochement between Donald Trump and Javier Milei, which could open new opportunities for access to markets, explained Gustavo Scarpetta.
However, economists at CIEN warn that the risks for 2026 remain significant: "The Achilles' heel is not production, but maintaining competitiveness." Globally, slower growth in goods trade is expected, with tariff frictions and volatility, especially due to uncertainty in an election year and the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policy. In Argentina, they argue that the new exchange rate band system could prevent currency overvaluation and maintain pro-export signals; GDP growth is projected at 4%, along with increased consumption that could boost imports, although high inventory levels in warehouses are limiting the dynamics.
Final perspective
In summary, 2026 could be a historic year, with record exports and a surplus, even in a global context of slowing goods prices. The strategy will be export more and betterwith added value, certifications, and associated services, and transform imports into productivity. In a world where services are growing faster than goods, Argentina has the opportunity to boost a dual strategy: agro-energy-mining together with knowledge-based services.
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