The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published its Economic Outlook report on Tuesday (04.06.2025), in which it anticipates an improvement in Argentina's economic activity for the period 2025-2026. According to the document, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow by 5,2% in 2025 or with a 4,3% in 2026, following a contraction recorded during the first half of 2024.
According to the organization, the rebound observed in the second half of 2024 is due, among other factors, to the increase in private consumption, investment, and a general recovery in the macroeconomic environment.A strong economic recovery is taking shape”, notes the report.
The OECD indicates that improved real incomes, more flexible financing conditions, and a reduced regulatory burden are facilitating the expansion of domestic demand. It also mentions the elimination of restrictions on capital movements, which could be fostering a more favorable investment climate.
Exports, external balance and energy production
In relation to foreign trade, the report states that “Argentina's import tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers have been reduced in 2024, and further reductions are expected in 2025.”. While exports are projected to moderate relative to their 2024 levels, international demand for energy, especially natural gas, is expected to continue.
"New gas production is helping to reduce dependence on energy imports", says the OECD. In 2024, the current account balance showed a surplus of 0,9% of GDP, following a deficit of 3% in 2023. The agency predicts that this result will be partially reversed in the coming years as a result of increased imports.
Inflation, exchange rate and fiscal policy
According to the OECD, year-on-year inflation would have fallen from 211% at the end of 2023 to 47% in April 2025. It is estimated that this downward trend will continue and could reach 37% in 2025 y 15% in 2026, due to a combination of factors such as positive real interest rates, lower fiscal deficit and lower import costs.
Regarding the exchange rate, the report indicates that the new regime announced includes floating within mobile bands, which will widen by 1% monthly.
From a fiscal perspective, an overall surplus of 0,3% of GDP was recorded in 2024.The government maintains its commitment to achieving a positive primary balance by 2025.", notes the OECD. However, the organization warns that "Additional efforts are needed to improve the fiscal position sustainably".
Among the challenges identified are the need to gradually eliminate subsidies, improve the efficiency of public spending, and broaden tax bases without discouraging investment.
structural reforms
The report also addresses the structural reforms adopted since 2024, particularly in the regulatory and labor areas. According to the OECD, "recent efforts to reduce the regulatory burden will boost productivity and should be maintained." It also recommends advance measures that promote the formalization of employment and the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.
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