The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported on Monday (20.12.2021) that the global trend of goods fell 0,8% in the third trimester, adding that the emergence of the Omicron coronavirus variant increased the risk of missing the growth rate forecast for 2021.
The WTO said imports from North America and Europe were weaker than expected and exports from both regions declined. Now, the new variant of the Covid-19 virus has “tilted the balance of risks to the downside,” it stressed.
The exports Seasonally adjusted sales fell 1,9 percent in North America, 2,5 percent in South and Central America, while in Europe they fell by 1 percent. Asia also suffered a 1,2 percent drop and Africa a 3,8 percent drop compared to the previous quarter.
As for the imports, these decreased by 0,5% in Europe and increased by 0,4 percent in North America, although an increase of 2,6 percent in Europe and 1,5 percent in North America had been anticipated. However, shipments from South America and the Middle East increased by 0,4 percent and 1,6 percent respectively.
Despite these negative notes, the organization points out that the Trade volume still increased by 11,9% year to date through September. This is slightly below the WTO's forecast of 4 October, which had predicted a 4 per cent increase over the same period.
Among other considerations, the WTO highlights: “The forecast of a 10,8% increase in merchandise trade for the whole of 2021 could still be met if fourth quarter data show a rebound in volume growth.”
“This is a real possibility as measures to unblock container ports on the US West Coast have had some success,” the WTO also said, despite the fact that the Merchandise Trade Barometer has pointed to a cooling of trade growth in the last months of 2021. (WTO Press Release)
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