Uncertainty in trade policies has become a structural factor of instability for global trade, acting as an "invisible tariff" that raises costs and hinders growth. Sudden changes in tariffs, subsidies, or restrictions generate volatility that ripples through supply chains and international markets. This was reported by UNCTAD in its September 2025 Global Trade Update.
Recent adjustments in U.S. trade policies show how even moderate changes can disrupt global flows, particularly affecting countries highly integrated into production chains. According to the Manufacturing Intra-Industry Trade Index 2024Mexico and Brazil are the most exposed in Latin America:
⦁ Brazil: 46,6
⦁ Mexico: 52,2
Three main impacts
⦁ Higher costs and lower growth: Companies reorganize chains and accumulate inventories, increasing expenses and discouraging investment.
⦁ Financial risks: Sudden changes affect exchange rates, investor confidence and credit conditions.
⦁ Erosion of trust: Weak rules and unilateral actions encourage retaliation and hinder international cooperation.
Early Shipments and Vulnerability
Additionally, UNCTAD maintains that "uncertainty about the timing of implementation of measures leads to premature reactions." For example, air shipments to the US. increased by almost 10% in the first quarter of 2025, while total imports fell in the second quarter. Least developed countries depend on large, low-value exports, and their small businesses face greater credit and infrastructure constraints, the agency warns.
Diversification and trade agreements
For this reason, UNCTAD emphasizes that having multiple export markets and participating in trade agreements reduces vulnerability. China, for example, has demonstrated that global exports can grow even when shipments to the US fall, cushioning the impact of unpredictable policies.
In that line, the body suggests:
⦁ Advance notice of policy changes.
⦁ Clear and data-driven trade measures.
⦁ International coordination to avoid retaliation.
⦁ Strong trade agreements with dispute resolution mechanisms.
⦁ Diversification of export markets.
In Latin America and Argentina, where much of trade depends on commodities and global supply chains, diversifying markets and strengthening agreements helps reduce vulnerability. UNCTAD's series of reports serves as a tool to guide strategies in this direction.
◾https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ditcinf2025d7_en.pdfttps://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ditcinf2025d7_en.pdf
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