International trade is projected to reach a record high by the end of 2025. USD 35 trillion, According to the latest projections published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), although the momentum is moderating due to geopolitical and economic factors, global activity remains positive.
According to the report, released this Tuesday (09.12.2025), world trade would grow by 7% in 2025, which represents an additional USD 2,2 trillion compared to 2024. In the third quarter alone, the exchange of goods and services advanced 2,5% quarter-on-quarter, and the last part of the year is expected to maintain the upward trend, albeit at a more gradual pace.
“The new data confirm that trade continued to expand during the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, rising costs and uneven global demand slowed its momentum,” UNCTAD noted.
According to the agency, if the projections materialize, “goods would contribute around USD 1,5 trillion and services around USD 750.000 billion”, driving global growth of 7% in 2025.
In addition, he highlighted a change in dynamics The rebound is no longer driven by higher prices, but by a greater real volume of trade. “The increase in global trade by the end of 2025 is due to higher volumes and not price increases, reflecting stable demand with more moderate inflation,” he explained.
Performance by region
By region, UNCTAD highlighted that Eastern Asia It led the expansion of trade in the last four quarters, with 9% growth, followed by South America (7%), Europe (6%) and North America (2%). In parallel, the South-South trade expanded almost 8%Strengthening ties between developing economies. Among the best-performing countries were Brazil and South Africa, which recorded significant increases in their international trade.
Sectors: technology and agriculture
Manufacturing consolidated its position as the main driver of growth, with a projected increase of 10% in 2025. Within the sector, the electronics It led the surge with a 14% jump, driven by the growing demand for technologies linked to artificial intelligence. farming It also showed strength: exports of cereals, fruits, and vegetables grew by 11% in the third quarter, marking a significant expansion in agricultural trade. In contrast, the exchange of Fossil fuels It decreased due to the drop in its international prices, while trade automotive It fell by 4% during the year.
Looking 2026, showed signs of cautionUNCTAD warned that the scenario could weaken due to factors such as slower global economic growth, higher levels of indebtedness, still high prices and an uncertain geopolitical environment.
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