The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) confirmed today (02.07.2024) the positive trends in world trade in the first quarter of 2024, with an increase in the value of trade in goods of around 1% quarterly, and the value of services of around 1,5%.
The conference expects that “this increase, driven by positive trade dynamics for the United States and developing countries – particularly large developing Asian economies – will add approximately $250.000 billion to trade in goods and $100.000 billion to trade in services in the first half of 2024 compared with the second half of 2023.”
However, UNCTAD experts expect global GDP growth to remain around 3% for 2024, and short-term trade prospects are “cautiously optimistic.”
If positive trends continue, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion, UNCTAD says, but it also considers it unlikely to exceed the record level seen in 2022.
China, India and the United States
According to the authors of the report, global trade growth in the first quarter of 2024 was mainly driven by rising exports from China (9%), India (7%) and the United States (3%). In contrast, European exports showed no growth and African exports decreased by 5%.
On the other hand, trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by around 1. 2%, both in imports and exports, during the first quarter.
Good performance of green assets y the AI
According to UNCTAD, the commercial value of high-performance servers increased by 25% compared to the first quarter of 2023, while other computers and storage drives experienced an increase of 8%.
Among green products, electric vehicles grew significantly, increasing by around 1. 25%.
The report's authors consider these figures to be “good news,” although the outlook for 2024 is tempered by potential geopolitical issues and industrial policy impacts. Therefore, “some economies in East Asia and Latin America may find opportunities to further integrate into supply chains affected by geopolitical concerns.” (Global Trade Update. July 2024)
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