The volume of world merchandise trade would decline by around 18,5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Tuesday.
«The drop in trade we are seeing now is historically large – in fact, it would be the steepest in history. But there is a silver lining here: it could have been much worse., said WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo in Press release.
Chart 1: Volume of world merchandise trade, 2005Q1-2021Q4
(Index, 2015 = 100)
Source: WTO/UNCTAD estimates and WTO Secretariat
In its previous report, the WTO forecast that global trade would fall by between 13% and 32% in 2020, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
"As things currently stand, trade would only need to grow by 2,5 percent per quarter for the rest of the year to meet the optimistic projection," the WTO said in its Updated Global Trade Statistics and Outlook, mentioning that the government's quick responses helped moderate the contraction.
Looking ahead to 2021, however, the WTO predicted that headwinds such as a second wave of infections, weaker-than-expected economic growth and recourse to trade restrictions could cause trade expansion to fall short of earlier projections.
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