The World Trade Organization said on Friday (20.11.2020) that global trade in goods had recovered in the third quarter of COVID-19 lockdowns, but forecast a slowdown at the end of 2020.
The WTO said its trade barometer of goods had risen to 100,7 points from a historic low of 84,5 points in August, driven by an increase in export orders andagricultural raw materialsA reading above 100 indicates above-trend growth.
«The latest reading indicates a strong rebound in trade in the third quarter as lockdowns eased, but growth is likely to slow in the fourth quarter as pent-up demand is exhausted and restocking is completed."the organization said.
The WTO noted that The outlook for trade is uncertain, with a second wave of COVID-19 infections leading to new lockdowns in Europe and North America that could trigger another round of business closures.
The WTO goods trade barometer is a mix of data, with indices on export orders (113,5) and agricultural raw materials trade (103,6) above medium-term trends, container shipping (102,0) and automotive goods (94,6) on trend and air freight (88,5) and electronic components trade (94,6) below.
The barometer is designed to anticipate turning points and gauge the momentum of global trade growth over a few months, although the WTO said uncertainty meant it could be less reliable.
He cited higher-frequency data pointing to a stalled recovery in international flights and container shipping in October, but improved economic sentiment reflected in copper futures prices and analysis of news reports. The latter showed an improvement in tone following announcements on effective vaccines in early November.
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