The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has published two annual reports on key statistics and trends observed in 2020. Each report analyses trade-related issues of particular importance to developing countries.
El first report qualified «Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2020: Trade Trends Under the COVID-19 Pandemic» UNCTAD notes that although the pandemic “severely disrupted the global economy,” economic conditions were deteriorating before the outbreak. UNCTAD notes that trade tensions between the US and China, fears of a “disorderly Brexit” in Europe, and a negative global output outlook contributed to the widespread trade slowdown in 2019, which preceded the pandemic.
The report projects that the value of international trade would have declined by 8% in 2020, reinforcing a pattern of volatility seen over the past decade. The ratio of international trade to global output is expected to be about 25%, down from a peak of 30% in 2008, indicating that the global economy is becoming less dependent on trade. In 2019, trade in goods was valued at $19 trillion and trade in services at $6 trillion, for a total value of $25 trillion.
UNCTAD presents regional and national import and export trends and trade indicators to illustrate performance and estimate international trade in goods and services over the past 10 to 15 years. Specifically in 2019, it finds that in developing countries, gross domestic product (GDP) is more dependent on goods and services exported to foreign markets. Country-specific indicators are available for trade balances, dependence on commodity exports, changes in export diversification, export performance, competitiveness and sophistication, among others.
El second report is entitled «Key statistics and trends in trade policy 2020: Deep regional economic partnership». It focuses on tariffs, trade agreements, non-tariff measures (NTMs) and trade defence measures. UNCTAD finds that tariffs have remained stable in recent years, with the exception of increases in bilateral tariffs adopted by the United States and China.
The plurilateral trade agreement between fifteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region finds that RCEP economies account for about 30% of global GDP, with China accounting for almost half of that amount. Intra-RCEP trade comprises 40% of the members’ total trade, although UNCTAD notes that smaller countries in the bloc are more dependent on RCEP members. Recall that RCEP was signed in November 2020 and is expected to enter into force in January 2022.
The UN General Assembly's main body notes that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are also emerging as a means of regulating the international trading system. In 2019, more than half of global trade took place between countries that had signed a PTA.
Finally, the report analyses tariffs, trade agreements, non-tariff measures and trade defence measures, providing trade trends and statistics illustrating the use of trade policy measures across all economic sectors and geographic regions.
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