Global merchandise trade continues to show resilience in a context marked by the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices. This is reflected in the latest edition of the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer, whose index stood at 101,7 points, above the reference value of 100 that marks the long-term trend.
While the current reading is slightly lower than the 102,3 points recorded in January, the agency believes that trade volumes remain above the trend observed in recent years. The indicator suggests, however, that growth may be beginning to moderate.
“Global merchandise trade appears to have remained resilient despite the challenges posed by the conflict in the Middle East,” the WTO stated in presenting the results of its barometer. According to the organization, some of these negative effects have been offset by the strong increase in demand for electronic components associated with investments in artificial intelligence (AI).
In that regard, the electronic components index reached 105,5 points, becoming the most dynamic component of the barometer. Conversely, agricultural raw materials registered 98,9 points and automotive products 99,8 points, both slightly below trend.
The export orders index, considered one of the most reliable indicators for anticipating future trade trends, stood at 100,5 points, just above the reference level. Similarly, indicators related to freight transport continued to show expansion: air freight reached 102,2 points and maritime container transport 102,4 points, although at a more moderate pace than in previous months.
Taken together, the various components of the barometer show signs of resilience and point to relatively stable growth in global merchandise trade.
Prospects for 2026
The most recent forecasts from the WTO Secretariat, published in the report World Trade Outlook and StatisticsThey estimate that the trade in goods will grow by 1,9% in 2026 under a baseline scenario.
However, the organization warned that a scenario of high energy prices, linked to the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, could reduce growth to 1,4%. In contrast, continued investment in artificial intelligence could contribute up to an additional 0,5 percentage points to global trade growth.
The WTO also noted that global trade volume saw strong year-on-year growth during the first quarter of 2025, driven by accelerated purchases from importers seeking to anticipate potential tariff increases. Although the pace slowed for the remainder of the year, demand for artificial intelligence-related goods allowed the final results to exceed initial expectations.
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