The World Trade Organization (WTO) has halved its growth forecast for global trade in goods this year, lowering it from 1,7% to 0,8%.
In the publication titled Updated World Trade Outlook for October 2023 reveals: “The slowdown in trade appears to be widespread and involves a large number of countries and a wide range of goods, specifically certain product categories such as iron and steel, office and telecommunications equipment, textiles and clothing.”
Merchandise trade volume fell 0,5% year-on-year between January and June, but a “modest rebound” is expected in the second half of this year, 2023, the WTO says. It warns that annual growth in goods trade will rise to 3,2% in 2024, a forecast virtually unchanged from its previous projection of 3,3%.
The agency believes that growth could be stronger if inflation declines quickly. In this regard, it clarifies that a more pronounced slowdown than expected in China or a resurgence of inflation in developed economies could slow trade in goods in 2024.
Therefore, the WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, described this year's slowdown in trade growth as "a cause for concern, given the adverse implications for people's living standards around the world."
He added: “Global economic fragmentation – of which signs are emerging – will not help,” so “WTO members must seize the opportunity to strengthen the global trade framework by avoiding protectionism and fostering a more resilient and inclusive global economy.”Publication: World Trade Outlook and Statistics — Updated: October 2023) (Press release)
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