Global trade in goods is expected to see a turnaround in the second quarter of this year, due to a recent rebound in export orders, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Wednesday (31.05.2023).
According to the WTO Merchandise Trade Barometer, preliminary data suggest that Trade remained depressed in the first quarter of 2023.
"But the recent pick-up in export orders points to a rise in demand for traded goods in the second quarter," he added.
On this occasion, the WTO indicator is at 95,6 points, 3,6 higher than the previous reading in early March, far from the threshold of 100, above which there are prospects for expansion.
This indicator is developed with the average of six partial indexes related to trade, of which only two showed expansion: trade in the automobile sector (110,8 points) and export orders (102,7).
Far from it, the sub-index of air cargo transport (93,5 points), container shipping (89,4), electronic components trade (85,2) and raw materials in the agricultural sector, although the latter is approaching expansion levels, with a measurement of 99,5 points.
"The mixed signals from the different sub-indices suggest that the road to recovery could be fraught with obstacles," the WTO concludes.
The WTO analyses that the rebound of the general index could be due to the relaxation of pandemic controls in China – initiated in December 2022 – which has boosted port traffic in the Asian country, an improvement that could have been partly offset by the reduction in vessel traffic in Europe.WTO Press Release)
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