Global merchandise trade is expected to continue to recover gradually in the first months of 2024, but could be destabilised by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, according to the latest WTO Barometer.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) indicator, released on Friday (08.03.2024), stood at 100.6 points, close to the reference level of 100 and almost unchanged from the level recorded in November.
In this regard, the WTO said the reading continued to indicate weak growth after merchandise trade declined 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the second and 2.5 percent year-on-year.
The latest update of the barometer index indicates positive growth, with an increase from 92,2 in March to 95,6. However, it is still below the reference value of 100, indicating below-trend stabilization and the early stages of a recovery in merchandise trade volumes. Despite these positive developments, the indices that make up the barometer are presenting mixed signals, suggesting a scenario of a slowdown in the economy. potentially uncertain towards the recovery of trade.
Namely, the Merchandise Trade Barometer serves as a composite leading indicator of global trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. A barometer value above 100 indicates above-trend trade volumes, while a value below 100 suggests that goods trade has fallen below trend or is likely to do so in the near future.
Global challenges are weighing on economic recovery. Currently, the Indices that make up the barometer present a mixed perspective. On this occasion, a rise in the automobile sales indicator (106,3) and to a lesser extent in air freight transport (102,3) and export orders (101,7).
To the baja The volume of container transport by sea (98,6), trade in raw materials and agricultural products (99,1) and especially the export of electronic components (95,6) were shown.
The WTO Goods Trade Barometer is here
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