The World Trade Organization is holding talks next week aimed at reaching an agreement to limit subsidies that contribute to overfishing of the world's seas and oceans.
Prospects for a breakthrough appear dim. WTO delegates have been negotiating for 20 years and only reached agreement on the definition of “fish” last December.
New WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has said a deal is a top priority, but has also expressed doubts about a July conclusion.
The share of fish stocks within biologically sustainable levels has plummeted from 90% in 1990 to less than 66% in 2017., according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, with some regions such as the Mediterranean significantly lower.
Environmentalists say eliminating harmful subsidies is the most important thing governments can do to help reverse the decline.
WTO delegates in Geneva are negotiating to try to close a deal before the virtual ministerial meeting of July 15.
However, negotiators have already missed the 2020 deadline set by the United Nations. A U.S. trade official said Friday that a deal was “within reach” but that improvements were needed.
Which is the principal problem?
Governments have been subsidising their fleets for centuries for reasons ranging from food security to national pride and pressure from industry lobbyists.
Global marine catches continued to grow after World War II, peaking at 86 million tonnes in 1996 and remaining at that level ever since.
Without government intervention, smaller catches would put some fishermen out of work. But subsidies that reduce their operating costs, such as fuel, mean they can continue.
This is creating what fisheries biologist Daniel Pauly of the University of British Columbia describes as a “race to the bottom,” with countries that have depleted stocks in their own waters traveling farther afield to compete for what’s left.
Pew Charitable Trusts estimates that an ambitious WTO deal could boost global fish biomass by 12,5% by 2050, according to a model that he shared with the negotiators.
However, a more recent draft showed more modest gains of less than 2%.
Where is the crisis deepest?
Among the biggest losers are developing countries like Senegal, whose economies depend heavily on fishing but which do not have the resources to develop large industrial fleets to compete with those entering their own waters.
This can deprive locals of both their livelihoods and a vital source of protein. Falling populations of predatory fish, including white grouper, have already forced a switch to the smaller sardinella.
EThe environmental impact of subsidies is also felt on the high seas, beyond the territorial waters of nations..
Some activists point to the Indian Ocean as a key example, where 94% of yellowfin stocks are overfished and the largest fleet is from the EU, according to the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission.
There are also concerns that hundreds of Chinese squid jiggers that come to fish near the Galapagos Islands each year will deplete stocks and rob other species such as tuna, sea lions and hammerhead sharks of their prey.
Who are the main subsidizing countries?
Global subsidies are estimated at $35,4 billion according to a 2019 study published in Marine Policy .
The top five subsidizing countries are China, the European Union, the United States, South Korea and Japan, he said. However, not all subsidies are considered "harmful" and some would not be covered by any WTO agreement.
Without subsidies, much of the high seas fishing would be unprofitable, including damaging deep-sea bottom trawling, according to a 2018 article in Science Advances .
How close is the WTO to a deal?
Countries have failed before. Talks ended in discord at the last WTO ministerial meeting in Buenos Aires in 2017. But analysts warn that coming away empty-handed would be a major blow to the organization that has failed to reach a multilateral deal in years.
In this round of talks, led by Santiago Wills of Colombia, five drafts of the agreement have been produced.
However, in a sign that much remains to be decided, The latest draft published last week still had 84 pairs of brackets, indicating parts of the draft that have not yet been agreed upon..
Negotiators say that The most vexing outstanding issue is the size of exemptions for developing countries, with countries like India pushing for large exclusions.
Beijing continues to oppose a high seas provision that many delegates see as problematic. Some also see proposals such as one from Washington on forced labour in May as futile, as they are unlikely to be approved by all 164 members.
Many negotiators see the virtual format of the July meeting imposed by COVID measures as a disadvantage.
Source: Reuters
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