The World Trade Organization (WTO) Barometer data, published on Thursday (18.02.2021), show a Growth in the volume of merchandise trade in the fourth quarter of 2020, although they indicate that this activity shows signs of slowdown in the first quarter of 2021 and could decline further in the near future.
The WTO notes that key indicators appear to have peaked in the first three months, so the expansion recorded at the end of last year is unlikely to continue.
According to the reportIn the fourth quarter of 2020, there was an increase in the volume of imports and exports, after the collapse caused by COVID-19 until September.
The latest Barometer reading is 103.9, exceeding the index's reference value (100) and last November's reading (100.7). This indicates a marked improvement in merchandise trade since its drastic decline in the first half of last year.
The Barometer component indices are all above trend or trending, but export orders (103.4) and automotive products (99.8) are showing signs of slowing after being rejected. The indexes for container transport (107.3) and air freight (99.4) are increasing, suggesting faster than average growth, although recent high-frequency data show that container transport has declined in the new year.
Regarding the electronic components (105.1) and raw materials (106.9) indices, they are above the trend and increasing, possibly due to the accumulation of inventories.
However, WTO clarifies that the Barometer may not fully reflect the impact of the resurgence of COVID-19 with new variants, which will undoubtedly affect the exchange of goods in the first quarter of 2021.
The seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade recovered from a deep decline in the second quarter, driven by rising exports to Asia to North America and Europe.
However, the outlook for 2021 onwards is increasingly uncertain due to the rising incidence of COVID-19 worldwide and the emergence of new variants of the disease.
Therefore, “recovery will depend largely on the effectiveness of vaccination efforts,” the WTO concludes.
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