According to the most recent data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of world merchandise trade grew by 5,3% year-on-year y 3,6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025, far exceeding the agency's projections. This growth was driven mainly due to a sharp increase in imports in North America, who anticipated the entry into force of new tariffs announced by the United States on April 2.
The WTO also notes that this rebound exceeded both its baseline scenario for 2025, which projected growth of 2,7%, and its adjusted scenario, which anticipated a contraction of 0,2%, based on trade policies in place through April. However, despite this positive start to the year, Projections updated as of June indicate that global merchandise trade growth will remain virtually stagnant in 2025, with a forecast of just +0,1% for the year as a whole.
(I.e.What was the behavior of the regions?
Regional disaggregated data reveal marked disparities in trade performance over the same period.
North America It largely led quarterly import growth, with a sharp 13,4% increase from the previous quarter, driven by anticipated purchases in the face of new tariffs in the United States. Meanwhile, South America, Central America and the Caribbean recorded a more moderate but solid growth of 3,6%, outperforming other regions such as Asia (+1,1%) and Europe (+1,3%). The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was the only region to experience a decline in trade, with a 0,5% contraction in its trade volume.
On the export front, South America also performed well, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3,2%. Among the most notable products are precious metals, minerals, coffee, and tea, although declines were observed in exports of fuels, oilseeds, and grains.
In dollar terms, exports from South and Central America grew 4% year-over-year, while imports increased 12%, reflecting strong demand for machinery, iron and steel products, and vehicles. However, as in other regions, there was a decline in the value of fuel imports, in line with lower energy prices.
This regional performance is part of a global trend, where the technology, chemicals, and apparel sectors led trade growth in value, with increases of 16%, 12%, and 7%, respectively. In contrast, automotive, energy products, and heavy metals registered declines, with drops of 4% for automobiles, 7% for fuels, and 3% for iron and steel.
(I.e.Monthly evolution of world merchandise trade
Additionally, the WTO notes that, after the first quarter's surge, monthly data through May show a slowdown in global trade growth. Starting in April, the momentum began to weaken, reflecting an adjustment in demand following the early imports some economies made to avoid future tariffs.
An example is that of United States, whose imports grew 25% year-on-year in the first quarter, but barely 1% in April and May combined. Despite this slowdown, the year-to-date (January to May) shows a 15% increase, reflecting the anticipatory effect of the new tariffs, the WTO explains.
In the case of Asia, exports of China remained stable, with year-on-year growth of 6% in both the first and second quarters. In contrast, India showed a more marked recovery: after a 4% drop in the first quarter, its exports grew by 9% in April, signaling an improvement in its most recent trade performance.
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