The World Trade Organization forecast today (31.03.2021) that the volume of global merchandise trade will increase by 8% in 2021, after having decreased by 5,3% in 2020.
The agency also said trade growth is expected to slow to 4% in 2022. The effects of the pandemic will continue to be felt, as this pace of expansion would keep trade below the pre-COVID-19 trend.
According to WTO, the relatively positive short-term outlook for world trade is clouded by regional disparities, persistent weakness in services trade and Delays in vaccination plans, particularly in poor countries.
"The strong rebound in global trade since the middle of last year has helped soften the blow of the pandemic for people, businesses and economies," the report said. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
«It will be essential keeping international markets open “For economies to recover from this crisis, rapid, global and equitable vaccine supply is a prerequisite for the strong and sustained recovery we all need,” the Director-General added.
She said ramping up vaccine production would allow businesses and schools to reopen more quickly and help economies recover. But she said as long as large numbers of people and countries are excluded from sufficient access to vaccines, it would stifle growth and risk reversing health and economic recovery around the world.
In the medium and long term, public debt and deficits could also weigh on economic growth and trade, especially in highly indebted developing countries.
Okonjo-Iweala added that Trade across value chains has helped countries access essential food and medical supplies during the crisis. In this context, increased protectionism would be detrimental not only to global economic growth but also to vaccine production.
" Vaccine manufacturing requires inputs from many countries. As we have quoted and heard many times, a leading COVID-19 vaccine manufacturer says that its vaccine requires 280 components from 19 different countries,” he clarified.
In closing, the Director-General stressed: “The WTO has helped keep trade flowing during the crisis. Now, the The international community must harness the power of trade to expand access to life-saving vaccines".
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