World trade is experiencing a huge increase and will grow by 10,8% in 2021 y 4,7% next year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Monday (04.10.2021), thereby improving its March forecasts, when it estimated a year-on-year increase of 8% and 4% respectively.
This strong annual increase in merchandise trade in 2021 is explained by the resurgence of economic activity in the first half of the year and also by the collapse last year, when trade hit rock bottom in the second quarter.
In this regard, the Director General of the institution, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said: “Trade has been an essential tool in combating the pandemic, and this strong growth highlights the importance of trade in underpinning the global economic recovery.”
However, this growth will moderate as exchanges return to the long-term trend they were on before the COVID-19 pandemic, the report said.
And he explains: “Supply-related difficulties, such as semiconductor shortages and port delays, may strain supply chains and affect trade in certain areas, but are unlikely to have a major impact on global aggregates.”
The Organization also notes that regional disparities will remain significant. In 2021, imports from Asia are expected to increase by 9,4% compared to 2019, while imports from least developed countries (LDCs) will fall by 1,6%.
In particular, the report notes that “in the Middle East, South America and Africa appears to see a weaker recovery in exports, while the Middle East, the Commonwealth of Independent States and Africa are where imports will recover more slowly.”
In this regard, the head of the WTO stressed that “inequitable access to vaccines is exacerbating economic divergence between different regions. The longer the lack of equity in vaccination persists, the greater the possibility of even more dangerous variants of Covid-19 emerging, which will reverse the health and economic progress achieved to date.”
According to the WTO, more than 6.000 billion doses of anti-Covid vaccines have been administered worldwide, "a remarkable achievement, but unfortunately still insufficient, due to the marked differences in access between different countries."
The effort to overcome this shortcoming is important. The Organization will hold its Twelfth Ministerial Conference (CM12) from 30 November to 3 December. This is the most important decision-making body.
In it, “members must come together and agree on a strong WTO response to the pandemic, which lays the foundation for faster vaccine production and equitable distribution. This is necessary to sustain the global economic recovery. Vaccine policies are economic policies as well as trade policies,” the Director-General said. (WTO Press Release)
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