The International Monetary Fund projected that Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 2,3% in 2026virtually unchanged from the 2,4% estimated for 2025, in an international context marked by the war in the Middle East, global uncertainty, and more demanding financial conditions. The organization anticipates a slight acceleration to 2,7% by 2027.
In this stage, Argentina would be above the regional average, with an expansion of 3,5% in 2026, although slowing down compared to 4,4% in 2025.and an improvement towards the 4% in 2027.
The report highlights that the impact of the conflict will be uneven across the region. While energy-exporting countries, such as Brazil, could benefit partially in the short term, smaller or importing economies will face greater pressure from rising energy and food prices.
Among the major economies, Brazil would grow 1,9% in 2026, Mexico 1,6%, Chile 2,4% y Colombian 2,3%, reflecting a pattern of moderate growth conditioned by external factors.
A global level, The IMF warns that the global economy faces a new test of resilience. Under the assumption that the conflict in the Middle East is limited, growth would slow to 3,1% in 2026 y 3,2% in 2027while global inflation would increase slightly in the short term before resuming its downward trend.
The organization notes that the conflict is already impacting the international economy through higher energy prices (with increases exceeding 20%), inflationary pressures, financial volatility, and disruptions in trade, whose growth would be reduced from 5,1% in 2025 to 2,8% in 2026.
In this context, risks remain tilted to the downside. An escalation of the conflict, increased trade tensions, or tighter financial conditions could further dampen growth, particularly in emerging economies.
However, the IMF also identifies factors that could sustain activity, such as productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence and the continuation of credible macroeconomic policies.
The IMF's projections show general consistency with the World Bank's diagnoses, which have also been warning about: moderate growth in Latin America, high exposure to external shocks, and the need for structural reforms to boost productivity.
Both organizations agree that the region faces a scenario of "low but stable growth", with limited opportunities if changes in investment, trade integration and technological development are not deepened.
The IMF report, presented at the Spring Meetings alongside World Bank, He agreed that the region faces a more complex global scenario, with less dynamic trade and greater geopolitical tensions, which requires strengthening macroeconomic stability to sustain growth.
◼Report: https://www.imf.org/es/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026
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