The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Statistical Manual for 2021, released on Thursday (09.12.2021), forecasts a strong del% increase 22,4 in the value of global merchandise trade this year compared with 2020. This growth will put the value of global merchandise trade 15% higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
However, trade in services will remain below pre-pandemic levels despite the 13,6% growth forecast for 2021 after a deep contraction recorded in 2020.
The annual report presents the statistical outlook for 2020 through a wide range of statistics relevant to international trade, investment, maritime transport and development. It also describes developments in 2021 through data-driven projections, known as nowcasts, for now and the immediate future.
“There is a huge demand for reliable and timely data as COVID-19 puts unforeseen pressure on decision-makers struggling to get a grip on the pandemic-affected economic landscape,” said UNCTAD Acting Chief Statistician Anu Peltola. “These statistics are needed for evidence-based policy responses to the pandemic,” she added.
The forecasts incorporate the latest data available at the time of finalizing the report. They do not reflect the potential impacts of the new Omicron variant as data is not yet available for December 2021.
2020 figures
Among the key data for 2020, the report notes that world trade in goods registered a 7,4% drop in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Global exports amounted to $17,6 trillion, a drop of $1,4 trillion from the previous year. This was the largest annual decline since 2009, when trade fell by 22%.
UNCTAD highlights the commercial structure by product in that year. It indicates that North America, Central America, Europe and Southeast Asia mainly exported manufactured products. Meanwhile, the main exporters of fuels They are located along the northern coast of South America, in Central and North Africa, as well as in Western and Central Asia. Other countries, for example Madagascar, Niger, Somalia, Ukraine and Brazil, sold mainly feeding.
Regarding global trade in services, UNCTAD notes that the fall in its value was much stronger, with a contraction of 20% in 2020 compared to 2019. This was the largest decline in services trade since records began. By comparison, the value of services trade fell by 9,5% in 2009 following the global financial crisis.
Among services, travel was the hardest hit, losing a whopping 63% in 2020 and severely disrupting tourism-oriented economies. International transport sales (including passengers and cargo) fell 20% last year.
Exports of business, intellectual property, financial and insurance services showed greater resilience, declining by 3%. Meanwhile, trade in telecommunications, computer and information services continued to grow during the pandemic, except in Africa.
The pandemic also affected the maritime trade international trade, disrupting operations and causing pressures on the supply chain. As a result, the report says, the volume of maritime trade plummeted by 3,8% in 2020.
In addition, the flows of foreign direct investment worldwide were reduced by a dramatic 35% in 2020 almost 20% below the levels recorded after the 2009 global financial crisis.
Slow recovery in services trade
Despite the challenges of the pandemic in 2020, the value of exports recovered rapidly, surpassing their pre-crisis level by the end of 2020. But current forecasts show the pace of growth gradually slowing throughout 2021, UNCTAD notes.
For global trade in services, the recovery path observed in the first six months of 2021 continues strongly in the third quarter of 2021, with an increase of 23% from the low levels of the same period in 2020.
However, he estimates that The pace of growth in trade in services will slow in the fourth quarter of 2021, UNCTAD predicts. (UNCTAD Statistical Handbook 2021)
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