The latest bilateral trade report from the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services (CAC) highlights that trade between Argentina and Brazil reached $2.982 million in October 2024, a 26,1% more than in the same month last year, when the amount was USD 2.366 billion. Compared to September, the exchange also showed an increase of 9,4%, driven by a growth in Argentine exports of 12,5% and in imports of 6,6%.
In detail, the Argentine exports to Brazil totaled USD 1.432 billion in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30,2% and a fifth consecutive month of positive growth. In contrast, the imports from Brazil amounted to USD 1.551 million, with an increase of 22,4% compared to the previous year. As a result, the trade balance for Argentina in October was deficit of USD 119 million.
Year to date: negative balance for Argentina
During the first ten months of 2024, trade with Brazil shows for Argentina a negative accumulated balance of $175 millionHowever, Argentine exports to Brazil have risen by 9,8% so far this year, while imports have fallen by 24%, which moderates the deficit.
The increase in Argentine exports in October is attributed mainly to products such as uncrushed wheat and rye, freight vehicles and passenger cars, as well as vehicle parts and accessories. Imports from Brazil, on the other hand, grew, driven by passenger and freight vehicles, electric power and road vehicles.
Argentina: Brazil's third largest trading partner
In the ranking of Brazil's trading partners, Argentina ranks third among suppliers, behind China (including Hong Kong and Macao) with USD 6.645 billion and the United States with USD 3.626 billion. As a destination for Brazilian exports, Argentina also ranks third, after China (USD 6.997 billion) and the United States (USD 3.552 billion).
Brazilian foreign trade outlook
At a global level, Brazil's exports to the world fell by 0,7% in October 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, from USD 29.681 million to USD 29.462 million. In contrast, total imports grew by 22,5% (from USD 20.501 million in 2023 to USD 25.119 million in 2024). Despite the drop in exports, the Brazilian trade balance remained positive for the thirty-third consecutive month, with a surplus of USD 4.343 billion.
Market expectations compiled by the Central Bank of Brazil in October reflect an increase in Growth projections for 2024, which rose from 3,0% to 3,1%. The annual inflation projection was also adjusted upwards to 4,59%, compared with the 4,38% estimated the previous month, and the Selic interest rate is expected to reach 11,75%, higher than the current level of 11,25%.
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