According to the latest Merchandise Trade Barometer, published this Friday (28.05.2021), global merchandise trade continues to recover in 2021, after the sharp (albeit brief) drop recorded in the second quarter of last year, as a result of the pandemic, said the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The Geneva-based body said its barometer of trade in goods has risen to 109,7 points in May, well above the baseline of 100, from 103,9 in February and the low of 88,1 in the second quarter of 2020, when the volume of global goods trade fell by 15,5%.
“In the last month, All component indices of the barometer were above the trend and rose, highlighting the broad-based nature of the recovery and pointing to an accelerated pace of trade expansion,” the press release stated.
The WTO also noted that the reading is broadly in line with its forecast of an 8% rebound in merchandise trade volume this year after a 5,3% decline in 2020, but the improvement was uneven.
"The relatively positive near-term outlook for trade is marred by regional disparities, continued weakness in services trade and delayed vaccination schedules, particularly in poor countries," he said.
According to the WTO, the largest gains were seen in the export orders (114,8), the tair transportation (111,1) and the Electronic components (115,2), all of which are highly predictive of short-term trading performance. The strength of the index automotive products (105,5) may reflect an improvement in consumer confidence. The same is true for the agricultural raw materials (105,4), which are mainly composed of wood intended for housing construction.
Finally, the good result of the container transport (106,7) Considering that maritime shipments held up well during the pandemic and, as a result, had less ground to make up.
It is recalled that the Merchandise Trade Barometer is an indicator developed by the WTO to provide "real-time" information on world trade trends. This index shows changes in trade growth two to three months before statistics on the volume of merchandise trade. (WTO Press Release)
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