A report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that the volume of global merchandise trade should increase by 2,6% in 2024.
The annual report World Trade Outlook and Statistics, released on Wednesday (10.04.2024), also indicates that the volume of world merchandise trade fell by 1,2% last year, but is expected to increase by 3,3% in 2025.
According to the report, global trade is expected to gradually recover in 2024, after a contraction in 2023 driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation.
In addition, the WTO believes that inflationary pressures will ease further this year, allowing real incomes to grow again, thereby boosting consumption of manufactured goods. “A recovery in demand for tradable goods is already evident in 2024, and indices of new export orders point to improved conditions for trade at the beginning of the year,” the report notes.
La WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala He said: “We are moving towards the recovery of global trade, thanks to resilient supply chains and a strong multilateral trade framework, which are vital to improving livelihoods and well-being.”
"It is imperative that we mitigate risks such as geopolitical conflict and trade fragmentation to maintain economic growth and stability," he added.
The report forecasts the regional trade. On the subject, it indicates that Africa's exports will grow by 5,3% this 2024, faster than any other region. In addition, strong import volume growth of 5,6% in Asia and 4,4% in Africa should help underpin global demand for tradable goods this year. However, all other regions are expected to experience below-average import growth, in particular South America (2,7%), Middle East (1,2%), North America (1,0%), Europe (0,1%) and CIS region (-3,8%). (*)
While the economic impact of the Suez Canal disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict has so far been relatively limited, some sectors such as automotive products, fertilizers and retail have already been hit by delays and increased transport costs, the report added.
It also states that geopolitical tensions have marginally affected trade patterns but have not triggered a sustained trend towards deglobalization.
This situation reinforces the challenge of the WTO, an almost universal body with its current 166 members, to revitalize fairer trade, threatened by a return to protectionism.
(*) Includes the Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain associate and former member states
Member States: Armenia
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