Starting February 1, 2025, the Donald Trump administration announced tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on those from China, a measure that seeks to pressure these countries on sensitive issues such as migration and fentanyl trafficking. However, this decision, which responds to what the US government considers a "national emergency," has generated strong reactions around the world, deepening global economic tensions and challenging the stability of international trade.
Lautaro Ramírez, international trade consultant and Director of the Observatory of International Economic Relations of the National University of La Plata, analyzed the impact of these tariff policies on global economic stability in response to a question from Customs NewsThe expert reflected on the effects of unilateral tariffs and their impact on international trade relations, with a special focus on the implications for Latin America and Argentina.
The frame
Putting the situation into context, Ramírez explained that tariffs have historically been used to protect domestic industry, generate tax revenues and regulate foreign trade. However, he pointed out that their uncoordinated application can destabilize the international trade system and generate uncertainty in the markets. “Tariffs are an instrument for regulating trade, but their unilateral use – without a coordinated strategy – affects economic predictability and investment.”
A key point of his analysis is the impact of US trade policy under the program America First Trade Policy, published on January 20, 2025 by the United States Department of Commerce. This initiative contemplates the review of agreements such as the T-MEC (USMCA) and the renegotiation of treaties with China and other countries. Ramírez warned that these measures "threaten the stability of international agreements and could lead to trade retaliation."
In this context, he explained that the application of new tariffs by the US has provoked immediate reactions from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China. "Although the measure was announced with immediate effect, it was decided to postpone its implementation for 30 days to evaluate its impact," he mentioned. However, he stressed that "Canada and Mexico have begun to adopt measures on immigration, border protection and energy policies in response."
Sectors of affected countries
Ramírez highlighted that the automotive, manufacturing and energy sectors will be the most impacted by the application of such tariffs. “Canada is a key supplier of oil, industrial machinery and vehicles to the United States. An increase in tariffs could affect these trade flows and increase production costs,” he explained. In the case of Mexico, he mentioned that “the export of auto parts, machinery and medical equipment could be seriously compromised.”
From a global perspective, Ramírez warned that these measures could alter the balance of trade and trigger a domino effect on other agreements. "If the United States follows a protectionist path without respecting the existing treaties, uncertainty will be generated among exporters and importers," he said. He also stressed that "the lack of predictability affects investment and job creation."
The US and trade rules
The international trade consultant stressed the importance of predictability, emphasizing that its consolidation is only possible through transparency and respect for established rules. In this regard, he warned that the US decision to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China represents a breach of this fundamental principle of international trade.
"When a country acts unilaterally, the multilateral trading system is dismantled," Ramírez said. He also recalled that under previous administrations, the United States had already weakened the World Trade Organization (WTO) by blocking the appointment of judges to its Appellate Body, seriously affecting the resolution of trade disputes and generating a climate of greater uncertainty for global trade players.
Position of Mexico, Canada and China
Faced with this situation, the affected countries have responded in different ways:
- Canada faces significant risk, as the USMCA changed key rules for its automotive and manufacturing industries. “Now, with new unexpected tariffs, its productive structure and the stability of its economy are at stake,” Ramirez said.
- Mexico, for its part, is seeking to minimize the economic impact through diplomacy. However, the uncertainty generated by the tariff measures could affect key export sectors, highly dependent on the U.S. market.
- China has more room to maneuver and could respond with its own tariffs or accelerate its market diversification strategy. However, Ramírez warned that “the global impact will be significant,” affecting various supply chains and increasing volatility in international trade.
The lack of predictability in US trade policy introduces new challenges to global economic stability, forcing countries to rethink their strategies and strengthen cooperation mechanisms to reduce vulnerability to unilateral decisions.
Impact on Latin America: opportunities and challenges
Lautaro Ramírez's recent statements on US tariff policy have revived the debate on its impact on Latin America. According to the expert, some countries could benefit from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) to increase their exports. In particular, those with bilateral agreements - such as Chile, Peru and Colombia - could strengthen their trade ties with Washington and gain competitive advantages in key sectors.
Brazil, for its part, is in a strategic position due to its industrial capacity and the presence of large companies such as Petrobras and Embraer. If the US seeks alternative suppliers, Brazilian oil companies could gain market share in the energy sector, while the mining and steel industries would benefit if Washington restricts imports from other regions.
In Argentina's case, opportunities are concentrated in sectors such as steel and energy. Ramírez pointed out that companies such as Tenaris and Ternium could benefit if the US increases demand for steel products. In addition, in the energy sector, Transportadora de Gas del Sur could find new markets if Washington limits its imports from Canada.
Lithium also plays a key role in this reconfiguration of global trade. With the growing demand for minerals critical to the energy transition, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia are positioned as strategic players within the “lithium triangle.” However, Ramírez warned that the great challenge is to develop the industrial capacity to export products with greater added value and not just unprocessed raw materials.
In this scenario, a key aspect of the analysis is the US preference for sectoral agreements instead of traditional free trade agreements. “This strategy could speed up negotiations in strategic sectors such as lithium, artificial intelligence and telecommunications,” said Ramírez.
Beyond Argentina's trade with the US, the consultant stressed the need for an open policy that eliminates barriers and diversifies markets. Thus, he underlined the importance of complying with the regulations of the European Green Deal in order not to lose access to the EU market, while recommending exploring new commercial opportunities.
He also highlighted India's potential as a key player in international trade, urging it to strengthen and expand the existing preferential agreement with Argentina. He also stressed the need to make better use of the African market, where there are trade agreements that have not yet been fully explored.
Finally, Ramírez considered that Argentina has the opportunity to reposition itself in global trade after years of greater isolation and, moreover, to not only integrate into international value chains, but even to lead them in strategic sectors.
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