Global trade faces a slowdown in 2026 after stronger-than-expected growth in 2025, driven primarily by demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products. Economists at the World Trade Organization (WTO) warn that the conflict in the Middle East could further reduce global trade if energy prices remain high, also impacting food supplies and trade in services due to disruptions in transport and travel.
According to the most recent WTO report, "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics"The report, published this Thursday (March 1,9, 2026) and 40 pages long, states that “global merchandise trade would slow to 1.9% in 2026, compared to 4,6% in 2025, while services trade would grow 4,8% after an increase of 5,3% in 2025.”
Overall, goods and services would grow by 2,7% in 2026, compared to 4,7% in 2025, and global GDP growth would moderate slightly from 2,9% to 2,8%. The WTO emphasizes that “a scenario in which oil and natural gas prices remain high throughout 2026 would reduce global trade growth by 0,5 percentage points, and by up to 1 point in energy-import-dependent regions, limiting goods growth to 1,4% and services growth to 4,1%.”
La WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala He noted that global trade remains resilient thanks to technological dynamism and the adaptation of supply chains, although he warned that the conflict in the Middle East and high energy prices increase risks to food security and global costs.
Strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
In this context, the WTO highlights the geoeconomic relevance of Strait of HormuzLocated in Asia and the main outlet to the Persian Gulf, one of the world's richest oil-producing regions, this maritime corridor constitutes a critical point for global energy and agricultural trade.
According to the report, the disruptions in the region have significantly impacted international supply chains. The blockade of the strait has disrupted approximately a third of global fertilizer exportsessential inputs for agricultural production. “Large producers like India, Thailand, and Brazil depend on the Gulf for the 40%, 70% and 35% "of their urea imports, respectively," the document states.
Furthermore, the Gulf region faces a food security challenge, with a 75% dependence on rice imports and over 90% dependence on corn, soybeans, and vegetable oil, commodities that would have higher costs if transported via alternative routes.
Fragmentation in trade flows
WTO data also show signs of fragmentation in global trade flows following the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and growing uncertainty in trade policies. Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, trade between blocs of economies with similar political positions—measured by voting patterns in the UN General Assembly—has grown by about 4% more slowly that trade within those same blocs.
Between 2018 and 2025, Bilateral trade between the US and China grew by approximately 30%. trade with the rest of the world grew more slowly than each country's trade with the rest of the world, and by 2025, U.S. imports from China had fallen by 29%, reducing China's market share from 13,8% to 9,3%. At the same time, the U.S. increased its imports from Asian economies such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam, indicating adjustments in global supply chains and possible trade diversion to avoid higher tariffs.
Trading in AI-enabled products
Another key aspect of the WTO report concerns the growing impact of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled products on the dynamics of international trade. According to the organization, these goods significantly boosted global trade during the second half of 2025.
According to the WTO, its participation in eWorld trade increased from 13% in 2022-2023 to 17% by the end of 2025, representing the 42% of the total growth of global merchandise trade. In terms of value, this trade reached 4,18 trillions of dollars, compared to 3,43 trillion in 2024, with stronger growth in Asia (62% of the total), followed by North America and Europe.
In this regard, the WTO highlights that key goods such as chips, semiconductors and data transmission equipment —essential for the development of AI— have been largely excluded from new tariff measures, which helped sustain trade dynamism despite increased global uncertainty.
trade in services
Regarding trade in services, the WTO notes that global exports grew 8% in 2025, reaching a total value of 9,56 trillions of dollars, although below the increase of 10% registered in 2024, which reflects a gradual moderation of the pace of expansion.
At the regional level, Africa (+15%) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region (+11%) recorded the largest increases, while the Middle East (+3%) and North America (+7%) showed a more moderate performance.
The report also highlights that the United States remains the world's leading exporter of services, with foreign sales of $1,209 trillion. However, if the European Union is considered as a bloc, its total exports surpass those of the United States, consolidating its weight in the global trade of services.
Within digital services, AI-enabled exports reached 525.000 million in the EU in 2024, compared to 230.000 billion in 2022. AI adoption is highest in telecommunications, computing and information services (52,4%), while transport and construction have lower percentages (7,3% and 9% respectively).
Trade in goods by region:
| Region | Imports (%) | Exports (%) |
| Asia | 3,3 | 3,5 |
| Africa | 3,2 | 1,2 |
| South America | 2,5 | 3,5 |
| Europe | 1,3 | 0,5 |
| Middle East | 1,0 | 0,6 |
| North America | 0,3 | 1,4 |
| CIS | -2,0 | 1,3 |
| Less developed countries | 4,5 | 2,9 |
These data reflect a gradual shift in trade dynamism towards emerging economies, in contrast to the lower growth projected for Europe and North America.
The WTO highlights that "South America is in a key position in the face of the global slowdown, while the Middle East reflects the direct impact of the regional conflict."
WTO economists warn that if the conflict is short-lived and demand for AI-enabled products remains strong, merchandise trade growth could improve to 2,4% in 2026 and reach 2,7% in 2027.
Trade in services is also affected by disruptions in critical transport corridors, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, where—as noted earlier—commercial traffic has fallen to almost zero, resulting in the cancellation of more than 40.000 flights and a significant increase in transport and insurance costs. Under this scenario, trade in services is projected to grow by 4,1% in 2026 and recover to 5,2% in 2027, in line with the report's initial projections.
Most Favored Nation (MFN) Terms
Next, in a special analytical chapter, the WTO examines the evolution of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) clause, a principle enshrined in the Article I of the GATT 1994, which states that any trade advantage granted to one country must automatically be extended to all members.
The report estimates that “approximately the 72% global merchandise trade continues to be conducted under the MFN clause,” following fluctuations observed during 2025 due to political changes and tariff measures in various economies.
Although the expansion of preferential trade agreements and new tariff measures has transformed the global landscape, the WTO underlines that the non-discriminatory tariff structure remains the foundation of the multilateral trading system.
Conclusion
In summary, the report concludes that, even in a context marked by economic fragmentation and geopolitical tensions, the predictability of trade policies and the strengthening of supply chain resilience will be decisive factors in sustaining the stability of international trade.
Additionally, the WTO maintains that, despite current challenges, most world trade continues to rely on common multilateral rules, confirming the validity of the rules-based system as the central axis of global economic governance.
We invite you to consult the full WTO report, which provides a deeper understanding of the challenges facing global trade within a key global context for development. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gtos0326_e.pdf
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