Global merchandise trade continues to recover in 2021, after the abrupt fall caused by COVID-19, according to the economic analysis of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Specifically, in the first quarter of this year, the volume of trade grew by 2,1% quarter-on-quarter, which is equivalent to an annual rate of 8,7%.
The current pace of recovery is broadly consistent with the recent WTO forecast of 31 March 2021, which estimated world merchandise trade growth of 8,0% in 2021 and 4,0% in 2022.
The Organization warns that unequal access to COVID-19 vaccines remains the biggest threat to economic prospects. This is because the lack of protection for all people, regardless of their income, leaves vulnerable populations exposed to new waves of infection.
The study shows that most regions have seen merchandise exports and imports recover to varying degrees since trade bottomed out in the second quarter of last year.
Prominent
The WTO details that in the first period of the year, exports increased in Asia (21,0% year-on-year) and Europe (1,9%). They fell slightly in South and Central Americal (-0,1%) and North Americaand (-2,2%), and fell more substantially in Africa (-4,6%), Middle East (-8,4%) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (-13,9%).
Meanwhile, merchandise import volumes increased year-on-year in all regions except Africa (-0,9%) and the Middle East (-2,7%).
WTO says trade recovery to date has been strongest in Asia and weaker in regions that export natural resources.
Merchandise trade in nominal US dollar terms also rebounded strongly in the first quarter, up 14% year-on-year, due to a combination of larger quantities and higher prices.
Product Categories
WTO estimates show a strong growth year-on-year in all major product categories of merchandise trade: manufactured goods increased by 16%, Farm products rose 11%, while shipments of fuels and mining products reached 9%.
The analysis highlights the Increase in manufactured goods such as computers, telecommunications equipment and integrated circuits, which recorded solid year-on-year business growth of 25% to 28% in the fourth quarter.
By contrast, personal items such as footwear, handbags and clothing posted more modest increases of between 4% and 11%. And export growth of pharmaceutical products slowed to 8% after soaring last year.
While the outlook for global merchandise trade is relatively positive in the short term, it is marred by regional disparities, according to the WTO's economic analysis.WTO Press Release)
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