The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which brings together 21 Pacific-bound economies from Asia and the Americas—including the United States, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Peru, China, Japan, and South Korea—projects a marked slowdown in economic growth by 2025.
According to the report prepared by Rhea Crisologo Hernando, Glacer Niño A. Vasquez and Carlos Kuriyama, Regional GDP growth is projected to slow to a range of 2.6 to 2.7% in 2025-2026, compared to an estimated 3.6% for 2024. This decline is explained by growing uncertainty stemming from trade tensions, an increase in protectionist measures, and a volatile geopolitical environment.
Global trade will be particularly affected: a 0.2% contraction in the volume of traded goods is expected, compared to the 3.0% expansion previously forecast. Commercial services exports were also revised downward.
Although several APEC economies continue to promote trade facilitation policies to streamline cross-border flows and strengthen their domestic sectors, these efforts, the report warns, are offset by an increase in restrictive measures, such as subsidies and anti-dumping tariffs.
The report also notes that trade policy uncertainty reached record levels in 2025: the corresponding index soared to 900 points, ten times higher than the average for the last decade. This volatility is holding back investment and business decisions, affecting regional economic dynamism.
Far from limiting itself to a diagnosis, the document proposes a roadmap based on adaptive public policies aimed at stability, trade diversification, strengthening the labor market, and strategic investment.
Along these lines, it urges policymakers to "reduce trade tensions," "diversify markets and products," and promote "structural reforms that strengthen resilience and competitiveness." It also emphasizes the need to strengthen multilateral cooperation to address common challenges and preserve the stability of the global trading system.
This analysis was published within the framework of the Meeting of Ministers Responsible for Trade (MRT) 2025, which is being held this Thursday and Friday (May 15-16, 2025) on Jeju Island, South Korea, where APEC member countries seek to renew confidence in the multilateral trading system.
- For more details and analysis, see the full article. «Steering the APEC Region Through Unprecedented Global Challenges in a New Era», available in: https://www.apec.org/publications/2025/03/apec-regional-trends-analysis–march-2025. or access the full report in PDF.
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