The global economy is heading for a new phase of slowdown. According to the report presented today (16.04.2025) by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global growth is projected for 2025 at just XNUMX%, which is expected to be XNUMX% in XNUMX. 2,3%, affected by weak demand, trade tensions, financial instability, and growing structural uncertainty. The document, titled "Trade and Development Forecasts 2025: Under Pressure, warns of the risk of a global recession, the impact of which will be particularly severe in developing countries.
The report highlights that many emerging economies are facing a "perfect storm" of difficulties: adverse external financial conditions, unsustainable debt levels, and weakening domestic growth. In this context, UNCTAD identifies South-South trade, which currently accounts for one-third of global trade and opens up opportunities to strengthen regional economic integration, as a potential source of resilience.
Coordination and regionalism
UNCTAD urges developing countries to intensify regional dialogue and move toward multilateral agreements that strengthen intraregional trade. According to the organization, “Developing countries should build on existing trade relationships and seek multilateral frameworks and regional agreements to boost intraregional and South-South trade.” It recommends: “An 'open regionalism' strategy can offer a viable alternative to global stagnation and a path to achieving development goals.”
Latin America: rebound with Argentine momentum
What is the regional outlook? In Latin America, regional growth is projected 2,3% in 2025, driven primarily by Argentina's economic recovery, which offsets the expected slowdown in Brazil and Mexico.
According to UNCTAD, "the recovery of the Argentine economy offsets the slowdown in Brazil and Mexico." The organization predicts that The Argentine economy will grow by 5% in 2025, after two consecutive years of contraction. This recovery will be driven by "a rebound in real wages and household spending," while "an improvement in financing conditions will help boost private investment."
However, the report warns that "increasing inequality and informality will moderate the expansion" in the country.
In contrast, Brazil will experience a slowdown to 2,2%, affected by a monetary adjustment cycle that restricts investment and consumption. MexicoGrowth will slow further, reaching just 0,5%, due to "restrictive financial conditions" and "fiscal consolidation efforts." The implementation of "more severe export restrictions" could even force a downward revision of projections for that country.
Furthermore, the region remains particularly vulnerable to policy changes in the United States, in areas such as trade and migration. Most Latin American central banks have initiated or will continue monetary easing processes in the face of moderate inflation, with the exception of Brazil, which maintains a contractionary policy.
Consequently, UNCTAD warns that the global landscape for 2025 will be marked by profound structural tensions that will require coordinated and sustained responses. Latin American economies, while facing significant challenges, also have an opportunity to redirect their growth trajectories by strengthening regional trade.
To learn more about the organization's diagnosis and recommendations, see the full UNCTAD report in PDF format: here
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