In Latin America, the first thing on the horizon for 2019 is a series of presidential elections. Voting will take place in Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, El Salvador, Guatemala and Panama. What will happen in Brazil with Bolsonaro? And Chile?
What is at stake in these scenarios?
Argentina It puts political and fiscal stability at stake, which has been hit by high inflation and devaluation rates. It will be interesting to see whether Mauricio Macri manages to weather the complex internal situation, despite the implosion of the Peronist party and the corruption scandals.
BoliviaUnlike Argentina, the country has experienced accelerated economic growth over the past 13 years: its gross national product is now five times higher than in 2005. The challenge for Evo Morales will be to legitimize his re-election project for a fourth six-year presidential term, which was already rejected in a referendum held in February 2016 and which, in contravention of the popular will, was revived by the Constitutional Court of Bolivia in November 2017.
Uruguay will have to see how the Broad Front of Tabaré Vázquez and Mujica reinvents itself in the face of new internal complexities and an uncertain financial scenario, given the fragility of the Argentine economy.
In El Salvador, Guatemala and Panama What is at stake is whether the next governments will be able to confront the double scourge of corruption and impunity.
Brazil, As of January 1, Jair Bolsonaro will be the new president of Brazil. According to his electoral campaign, Bolsonaro will implement a tough approach against crime and corruption, privatizations to reactivate the economy and alignment with the United States and Israel. However, the greatest fear is what actions he will take regarding Mercosur, since during his campaign he has shown little support for integration mechanisms.
Chile, under pressure. President Sebastián Piñera's second year seems to be fraught with challenges in fulfilling his lofty promises of economic recovery, approving important taxes and pension reforms in a Congress in which he does not have a majority and which he faces with limited negotiating capacity. In addition, there are warnings about the risk that the global trade war represents for copper prices, the country's main export, due to the slowdown in China, its main trading partner.
What will happen to the economy in 2019?
According to projections by the International Monetary Fund, moderate growth is expected to range between 1.9% and 2.6%. However, as the Federal Treasury in Washington continues to raise interest rates and the White House continues the tariff war with China, which reduces the United States' appetite to invest in emerging markets such as Latin America, we will see how, instead of growing, the economy may contract.
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