The fall in global GDP as a result of the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic will reach a depth by 6% in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) moderate scenario for this year.
This contraction could be deeper, reaching a rate of -7.6%, if there is a relapse of health-related events that leads to a new closure of economic activities, experts from the entity warned in their update of the Economic Outlook for the G-20 economies.
The new forecast, even the most moderate one, is for a greater decline than the one updated by the World Bank on Monday, June 8, which set it at -5.2 percent. Confirmation of any of the forecasts will be historic.
To estimate this collapse in global GDP, the organization's experts incorporate the forecast of a 7.3% drop in the United States economy.
Regarding China, the second largest economy on the planet, the OECD estimates a contraction of 2.6% in its GDP.
The scenarios of a resurgence with a new closure of activities for these two economies, the largest on the planet, are a collapse of 8.5% for the GDP of the United States, and 3.7% for China.
For the OECD, there will not be a single economy among those that make up the G-20 and its members, that can avoid the contraction caused by Covid-19. Emerging and advanced will succumb in different dimensions.
Latin America
Argentina will have a GDP decline of 2020% and 8,3% in 10,1, respectively, depending on the scenario (with a single outbreak or with two).
The impact will be somewhat milder in Brazil: -7,4% or -9,1%. For Mexico The estimates are similar, with a drop of 7,5% or 8,6%, depending on the scenario. Colombia, the organization's youngest member, will suffer a contraction of 6.1% this year in the moderate scenario and 7.9% in a double closure of activities. Chile They see a drop of 5.6%, the most moderate of the Latin American members, which could reach a depth of 7.1% in the event of a resurgence.
Key policy messages
- Strengthening health systems and improving the supply of medical equipment
- Use testing, tracking, tracing, isolation and distancing strategies to limit outbreaks of the virus
- Ensuring international cooperation conducive to the development, production and distribution of vaccines/treatments worldwide
- Supporting transitions between jobs, but improving income protection
- Facilitate rapid restructuring of companies and help businesses to digitalize, especially SMEs
- Maintain liquidity support measures and prepare to face new financial turbulence
- Enabling more resilient supply chains and promoting a green transition
- Maintain expansionary fiscal and monetary policies
- Investing and focusing on greater progressivity and equity
As the restrictions imposed by the # COVID19, progress towards economic recovery remains uncertain and vulnerable to a second wave of infections.
Read more in the new #EconomicPerspectives of the OECD ➡️ https://t.co/hb9NrV6lmK pic.twitter.com/xhwpIg3ueZ
— OECD ➡️ Better Policies for a Better Life (@ocdeenespanol) June 10, 2020
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