The latest figures on export orders, air freight and other economic indicators suggest that global trade will continue to contract in the third quarter of 2019, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Thursday (15.08.2019).
In a context marked by the trade war between the United States and China, now also extended to the financial sphere due to the currency conflict between the two powers, The WTO today published its Merchandise Trade Barometer and placed it at 95,7 points, the worst figure since March 2010.
This index, which the WTO has renamed (until now it was called the World Trade Outlook Indicator), indicates an expected contraction in trade when it falls below 100 points, and expansion when it exceeds that mark, something that has not happened for a year.
The six sub-indicators used to calculate the barometer also showed contraction, with particularly low figures being air freight traffic (91,4 points) and the evolution of the electronics sector (90,7).
Only maritime goods were close to 100 points in the indicator (reaching 99), while the index of export orders reached 97,5 points, that of automobile production and sales 93,5, and that of raw materials and agricultural products 97,1.
«The latest barometer reading suggests that merchandise trade will remain weak in the second and third quarters», the WTO concluded in a statement.
The organization's latest full quarterly figures for the first quarter showed a 1,2 percent year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade, down 2,8 percentage points from the same period in 2018.
Source: Reuters
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