Global trade is “likely to fall sharply in the first half of 2020” thanks to collapses in the automotive sector, container shipping and export orders, according to a report published on Wednesday (20.05.2020) by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
El World Trade Barometer fell to 87,6, its lowest reading since its launch in 2016. The benchmark index is 100, with a reading below suggesting a contraction.
The WTO's quarterly publication is based on leading economic indicators such as global export orders, international air cargo volumes, container port throughput, automobile production and sales, as well as trade in electronic components and agricultural raw materials.
"All of this was well below the trend in the index, which fell from 95.5 in February 2020. All component indices of the barometer are currently well below the trend.
The index of automotive products (79.7) was the weakest of all due to the collapse of car sales in major economies. The sharp decline in export orders (83.3) suggests that weak trade growth will persist in the near term,” the report reads.
The results are in line with other indicators suggesting an unprecedented collapse in shipments as markets and economies around the world shut down to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
The WTO had previously forecast that the virus would lead to a contraction in global trade of between 13% and 32% this year, depending on how long the outbreak lasted.
WTO goods barometer flashes red as COVID-19 disrupts world trade https://t.co/JGKatjzm9t pic.twitter.com/RLNOnOuJuM
— WTO (@wto) May 20, 2020
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