One in five countries will experience stagnant or declining per capita income by 2020, the year in which Global growth prospects of 2,5% will depend on reducing trade conflicts, according to estimates by the United Nations (U).
The report "World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2020» from the U published this Thursday (16.01.2020/2019/2,3) indicated that due to the impact of trade conflicts, the global economy experienced its lowest growth in a decade in XNUMX: XNUMX%.
«Trade policy uncertainty has hurt global investment and exports. Rising tariffs and months of back-and-forth between escalating and escalating global trade tensions have fueled political uncertainty, significantly reduced investment and reduced global trade growth to 0.3 percent in 2019: its lowest level in a decade," says the U.
In addition, if trade tensions, financial instability or geopolitical tensions were to flare up again, the report envisages a negative scenario of global expansion of 1,8%.
"A prolonged fragility in global economic activity can cause major setbacks for sustainable development, including the goals of poverty eradication and decent job creation," the report said.
The recent rate cuts in the United States may provide some support to economic activity, although political uncertainty, weak business confidence and diminishing fiscal stimulus are leading to a forecast of a slowdown in GDP growth, from 2,2% in 2019 to 1,7% in 2020.
In the European Union, global uncertainty will continue to hold back the manufacturing sector, but will be offset by stable growth in private consumption, allowing a slight increase in GDP growth from 1,4% in 2019 to 1,6% in 2020.
«Despite significant adverse factors, East Asia remains the fastest growing region in the world and contributes most to global growth," the report said.
China's economic growth is expected to gradually moderate from 6,1% last year to 6% in 2020 and 5,9% in 2021, supported by more accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, the U.S. report said.
Moreover, Growth is expected to gain momentum this year in Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia and Turkey.
The fall in commodity prices between 2014 and 2016 weakened many countries, leading to continued production losses and setbacks in poverty reduction, as in Angola, Argentina, Brazil, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and South Africa, with average real incomes now lower than in 2014.
In another order, eradicating poverty in much of Africa would require annual per capita growth of more than 8%, compared with the average rate of 0,5% over the past decade.
In environmental terms, the report recommends responding to the Growing global energy needs with renewable energy sources or low carbon emissions, which will require massive adjustments in the energy sector.
Regarding monetary policy, the U said that excessive confidence in this tool "is insufficient to revive growth and also results in high costs, including the worsening of risks to financial stability."
Therefore, "it is necessary to adopt a more balanced policy mix "that stimulates economic growth while advancing greater social inclusion and environmentally sustainable production," the U.
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