The race to succeed Brazilian Roberto Azevêdo as head of the World Trade Organization is turning into a battle between candidates who reflect both political legitimacy and personal competence; the prize is the chance to defending a global trade order under severe pressure.
The WTO director-general has few direct powers, meaning his success depends on winning the Members' confidence, particularly the big three: United States, China and the EU.
The political skills of the nominees are particularly important at this time because, having faced strong criticism from the United States, the organization is struggling to stay relevant. The new chief will have to find a way to address American complaints on the failure of the WTO rulebook to constrain China's state capitalism and Washington's criticism of the judicial reach of the organization's dispute settlement process, without alienating the rest of the members.
China would almost certainly block a U.S. appointment and vice versa, leaving major nations and regional groups searching for a compromise candidate that can command consensus among the WTO's 164 member countries. A formal vote is a last resort.
The deadline for nominations is July 8, and the candidate could be ready by the time Mr Azevêdo leaves in September. Alternatively, the WTO could appoint an interim director-general and the contest could extend beyond this autumn.
«The key question is which individual has the legitimacy to preserve the vital functions of the organization."said Uri Dadush, an expert on global economic governance and a former senior official at the World Bank."Implicit support from one or more of the major trading powers would probably be a necessary but not sufficient precondition for success."
Unlike the controversial but long-standing convention under which the EU appoints the head of the IMF and the US the president of the World Bank, there is no widely accepted custom regarding the nationality of the WTO chief.
The rules of the organisation simply state that the selection must be made to “reflect the diversity of the WTO membership”. The sequence since the WTO was created in 1995 has been two Europeans, a New Zealander, a Thai, another European and then the Brazilian Azevêdo.
Some countries, particularly in Africa, which has never fielded a director-general, say there is a case for regional rotation. Ebba Kalondo, spokeswoman for the African Union of Governments, said a unified African candidate “would be a game-changer for Africa in the world.”
But the AU's attempts to select and unite behind an African candidate have already been marred by intra-regional rivalries and personal ambition.
Hamid Mamdouh, an Egyptian with long experience at the WTO but little political clout, was nominated as the AU’s pick earlier this year alongside low-profile candidates from Benin and Nigeria. But after Azevêdo’s unexpected decision to leave early, Nigeria withdrew its earlier nomination and proposed Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, its well-known former finance minister.
Okonjo-Iweala's candidacy may also deter a potential bid from Kenya's Amina Mohamed.
In an interview, Mamdouh highlighted his long personal experience with the WTO and the legitimacy of the AU selection protocol.
«It would be useful to have a single candidate backed by the continent, but what Nigeria did was disrupt the AU process., he said, defending his decision to continue in the race. He would now be guided by ongoing discussions within the AU, Mamdouh said.
The European Commission initially tried to argue that it was a developed country's turn, a position that EU trade commissioner Phil Hogan, who is contemplating a run, said was supported by Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative.
But it quickly became clear that Hogan had overstated the U.S. position. Mr. Lighthizer's office said last week that "Ambassador Lighthizer does not endorse any candidate at this time, nor does he feel that a candidate necessarily needs to be from a developed country.". EU member states themselves also said last week that the next head did not have to be European.
Another declared candidate, veteran Mexican trade and finance official Jesus Seade Kuri, faces the challenge of distancing himself from the United States. Seade successfully renegotiated the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement and has spoken of his ability to get along with Lighthizer. But that may count against him among emerging markets suspicious of American influence.
In supporting its bid, the Mexican government emphasized its status as a successful open trade economy, rather than its geographic location.
«Rather than thinking about regional blocs, we are thinking about putting forward a candidate who represents the importance of trade and the rules-based trading system., said Mexican Economy Minister Graciela Márquez Colín in an interview.
Mexico also had a trade agreement with the EU and dealt a lot with Asia, he added: “In terms of trade, Mexico is close to the United States. But it is also close to almost everywhere else. «.
In any case, those involved in the system say, the idea of neatly delineated blocs of developed and developing countries at the WTO is inaccurate. Bipul Chatterjee, executive director of the Consumer Unity and Trust Society, a research group based in Jaipur, India, said: "I don't think there is any developing bloc in the WTO or coherence between developing countries.«.
Brazil, for example, has agreed to a key US demand and stopped defining itself as a developing country at the WTO and therefore claims exemptions from some trade rules, and as such is regarded with some suspicion by countries such as China and India. Chatterjee said Azevêdo himself was seen by some developing countries as too close to the US, and said insisting that a candidate should be specifically from an emerging market would likely backfire.
«The WTO director-general should probably be someone from a middle-ranking power where the major powers trust both the individual and the country.«, Chatterjee said.
Source: Alan Beattie, Finnancial Times
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