Latin American exports will grow 10% in 2017 after five years of decline, but the rebound is attributed to the regional economic recovery and the dynamism of demand, particularly from China, ECLAC estimated on Monday (30.10.2017).
"In 2017, Latin America and the Caribbean will leave behind half a decade of falling prices for its export basket and a weak increase in export volume and will achieve a 10% growth in the value of its shipments. of goods abroad," said the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), a UN agency based in Santiago.
ECLAC also predicts import growth of 7%.
For 2018, ECLAC estimates that the growth of external demand and the economic growth of the region will lead to an increase in Latin American exports greater than this year.
Between 2012 and 2016, Latin America's exports and imports fell due to a drop in global demand. In 2016, the region recorded a 3,3% drop in sales, while imports fell by 8,6%.
Greater dynamism
The recovery in exports is explained by the greater dynamism of aggregate demand from some of the main trading partners and the recovery of growth in the region, which is expected to reach 1,2% this year and 2,2% next year after two years of recession, according to ECLAC.
Added to this are the higher prices of several export commodities and the dismantling of tariff and non-tariff restrictions in some countries.
The value of shipments to China - the region's largest trading partner - and the rest of Asia will grow by 23% and 17% respectively, followed by the United States (9%) and Latin American countries themselves (10%)..
In terms of countries, Brazil's exports will grow by 18%, Mexico by 9%, Argentina by 1,8%, Colombia by 16,5%, Uruguay by 23,8%, Peru by 14%, Ecuador by 10,8%, Chile by 10,3%, Costa Rica by 9,3%, Honduras by 29,6%, Nicaragua by 23,5%, and Panama by 1,3%.
Venezuela, which in 2016 saw a sharp decline in its exports (25,4%), will also increase its sales by 4,9% this year despite its political and economic crisis.
Urgent challenge
ECLAC warns that the recovery of Latin American exports is taking place amid "great uncertainty in the macroeconomic, technological and geopolitical spheres at the international level."
There is also concern about the high concentration of raw materials in the region's export basket, which is why ECLAC warns of "urgent challenge" that countries have to diversify their production.
To this end, it proposes generating favorable conditions for processing those products that are exported almost "raw", through more active industrial policies, implemented through public-private partnerships.
"The export dynamism of the region depends on the implementation of long-term active public policies. Public-private strategies to promote human capital and digital ecosystem, "encourage exports and attract investment," he warned. Alicia barcena, Secretary General of ECLAC, at the presentation of the report.
Likewise, ECLAC calls on the countries of the region to Increase trade in services, which have high added value and intensive in the use of information and communications technologies.
Source: AFP.
All the photos from the presentation of the latest report#ECLAC about #foreigntrade.Headed @aliciabarcena. https://t.co/TDzvwSVKdA pic.twitter.com/Scerrnzc2u
— ECLAC (@cepal_onu) 30th October 2017
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