Two global indicators released on Tuesday (10.03.2020) in a study conducted by Brazil and Switzerland showed that COVID-19 has already impacted the global economy.
The Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (IBRE/FGV) and the Swiss Economic Institute ETH Zurich's KOF noted that both the Coincident Barometer and the Antecedent Barometer of the Global Economy fell to their lowest levels since 2009, with data obtained through February.
According to IBRE, the global economic barometers are a system of indicators that allow the analysis of global economic development. Between the two indicators that compose it, the Coincident Barometer reflects the current state of economic activity, while the Antecedent Barometer projects a cyclical signal of about 6 months ahead of real economic developments.
"Although most variables have not yet captured the spread of the epidemic outside the Asian region, the results of the Coincident Barometer suggest that the global economy has already suffered significant damage," the text noted.
The Global Coincident Barometer fell 14,4 points, from 92,4 to 78,9, and was below the historical average of 100 points.
According to the report, the variables that make up theRegional indicators for Asia, Africa and the Pacific contributed to the decline, unlike the variables that make up the regions of Europe and the Western Hemisphere (North America, Latin America and the Caribbean), despite being timid, had a positive performance.
The analysis of the indicators identified that The biggest contribution to its downfall was from the Industry, followed by the set of general economic development variables and by trade.
The Global Barometer for the past two months fell by 10,4 points, from 97,6 to 87,2. The indicator fell after having increased in the previous two months.
In this case, the regions of Europe and the Western Hemisphere contributed slightly positively to the result, while the variables of Asia, Africa and the Pacific made a greater negative contribution.
Industry and general economic development variables influenced the decline. The contributions of the retail and wholesale trade variables were slightly lower than the previous month, while the contributions of the construction and service sectors remained almost unchanged.
The two barometers are compiled using the results of economic trend reports from more than 50 countries. “The aim is to achieve the broadest possible global coverage. The advantages of economic trend reports are that their results are generally available quickly and are not substantially revised after their first publication,” the FGV noted.
Source: Xinhua
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