World trade showed positive growth in the first quarter of 2023 after experiencing a consecutive decline in the previous two quarters, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.
The report "World Trade Update» published on Wednesday (21.06.2023) revealed that global trade in goods increased a 1,9% in the first three months of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, representing an increase of approximately USD 100.000 billion. This increase was driven by a revival of economic activity in China and by an increase in trade in road vehicles and pharmaceutical products.
Likewise, global trade in services also grew by around USD 50.000 billion, with a quarterly growth of around 2,8%.
Despite this positive growth, business development prospects remain subdued for the remainder of the year.
UNCTAD notes a mixed performance in merchandise trade among the world's major economies over the past four quarters. Brazil, India, the United States and the European Union experienced significant growth in both imports and exports. However, when looking at the quarter-on-quarter trend, the trade performance of these major economies during the January-March 2023 period appeared weaker, while China and India experienced significant growth in exports.
Although the report highlights positive growth in global trade in the first quarter of 2023, the outlook for moderate growth serves as a reminder of
challenges and uncertainties which persist in the global trade landscape. Namely:
● the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions,
● the weakening of the world economy,
● the persistence of isolationist policies in major economies,
● the slowdown in industrial production,
● inflation, commodity prices and interest rates,
● concerns about debt sustainability.
(World Trade Update, June 2023)
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