The value of world trade will fall at an annual rate of 26.9% in el 2020 second quarter, projected the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in a report released this Wednesday (13.05.2020/XNUMX/XNUMX).
The coronavirus pandemic reduced world trade values by 3% in the first quarter of this year, at an annual rate, according to the latest UNCTAD data published in that year. document, which was developed jointly with 36 international organizations.
World merchandise trade volumes and values have shown modest signs of recovery since late 2019, when the global economy was hit by measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.
UNCTAD's current forecasts incorporate a wide variety of data sources, capturing diverse trade determinants and indicators. They are updated weekly to incorporate new data releases.
The above estimates are based on data available as of 5 May 2020. Current forecasts for the value of merchandise trade for the first quarter of 2020 have been revised downwards in almost all recent updates, reflecting increasingly deteriorating prospects with each release of new statistics.
The decline in global trade now forecast for the first quarter is due to marked declines in related timely indicators.
Since December 2019, the Commodity prices have been falling at an accelerated pace. The free market commodity price index of the UNCTAD lost 1.2% of its value in January, 8.5% in February and 20.4% in March.
Fuels were the main driver of this development, recording a price drop of 33.2% in March, while minerals, metals, food and agricultural raw materials decreased by less than 4%.
This report also cites figures from the Universal Postal Union (UPU) according to which the International volumes fell by 23% due to the COVID-19 outbreak, and the Customs clearance times have increased by a factor of 32.
«Governments everywhere are under pressure to make post-Covid-19 recovery decisions with lasting consequences", He said UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi.
«These decisions must be based on the best available information and data. I am proud that UNCTAD has played a central role in bringing together so many international organizations to collect valuable data to support the response to the pandemic."He added.
With information from UNCTAD
The #coronavirus pandemic cut global trade values by 3% in the 1st quarter of this year. @UNCTAD projects the downturn to accelerate in the 2nd quarter to hit a 27% quarter-on-quarter decline. https://t.co/1a7rFz4Wnz @UNStats pic.twitter.com/1wgL6dG9GB
- UNCTAD (@UNCTAD) May 13, 2020
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