In an international context marked by uncertainty and volatility, the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 1,5% on average in 2018, thanks to a rebound in domestic demand, especially private consumption, and a slight increase in investment, ECLAC said in a new annual report.
El Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2018, was announced this Thursday at a press conference at the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters in Mexico, in Mexico City, by its Executive Secretary, Alicia Bárcena.
Growth of the region
According to the document, the region's overall average growth - whose projection decreased seven-tenths compared to the last estimate provided by the organization last April - maintains a positive trend, although it shows signs of slowing down.
South America is expected to grow by 1,2% in 2018, while Central America would grow by 3,4% and the Caribbean by 1,7%.
In terms of countries, the Dominican Republic and Panama will lead the region's growth, with increases in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 5,4% and 5,2%, respectively, followed by Paraguay (4,4%), Bolivia (4,3%), Antigua and Barbuda (4,2%), and Chile and Honduras (both with 3,9%).
The Economic Study adds that this regional growth is taking place in a complex global scenario, characterized by trade conflicts between the United States, China and other nations; growing geopolitical risks; a drop in capital flows to emerging markets in recent months and a rise in sovereign risk levels; depreciation of local currencies against the dollar; and a global economic expansion that tends to lose dynamism.
tax collection
The report indicates that tax collection in Latin America remains stable in 2018 at around 17,8% of GDP (compared to 17,9% in 2017), while average inflation remains within expectations (6,5% in June compared to 5,3% in 2017, excluding Venezuela).
unemployment
Meanwhile, the regional urban unemployment rate has stopped growing andand would remain at 9,2%, down from 9,3% last year, thanks to greater generation of salaried employment (1,4% in the first quarter of 2018, after recording 0,3% in 2017).
Fiscal scope
In the fiscal area, measures aimed at fiscal consolidation in Latin America have led to an expected reduction in the primary deficit, which would go from an average deficit of 0,8% of GDP in 2017 to one of 0,5% of GDP in 2018.
“Our region continues to grow, although at a slower pace than projected a few months ago, despite international turbulence. This is positive but it urges us to redouble our efforts to generate a recovery, without falling into excessive fiscal adjustments. Here Regional integration can play a fundamental role and that is where we must aim", stressed the Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Alicia barcena.
Aduana News is the first Argentine customs newspaper to launch its digital version. With 20 years of experience, its publications and initiatives aim to provide the most relevant knowledge on customs issues in order to contribute to safe trade in the region.
