As if it were a metaphor for what for some has been almost 47 years of European preponderance, Brexit will take place in the last second of this Friday... in continental Europe, which for the British will be 23:00 p.m. (also GMT).
A clock projected onto the famous black brick facade of Downing Street, official residence of Boris Johnson, will mark the countdown along with a light show.
«This is not an end but a beginning», the prime minister is due to say in a televised address to the nation in the evening. With a Brexit What long seemed impossible, Johnson scores a huge personal victory.
"The curtain is rising on a new act. It is a moment of true national renewal and change," he will say, according to an extract, after chairing a special cabinet meeting outside London, in the working-class town of Sunderland, in the predominantly northern part of the country. pro-brexit from England.
With Big Ben's chimes gone, silenced by a lengthy restoration, some will ring their own bells at a huge party organised outside the Houses of Parliament in Westminster, which for three years has been the scene of heated debates on the most important and divisive issue in the country's recent history.
However, there will be no shortage of tears from the detractors of the Brexit, including many young people who did not vote in the 2016 referendum and who now see their future truncated outside the UE.
"I know they are worried, like many pro-EU Britons," said centrist Luisa Porritt., one of 72 British MEPs now out of office, in emotional leaflets distributed door-to-door to voters in the London borough of Camden.
"It's the most important date since Henry VIII drove us out of the Church of Rome," said the triumphant Eurosceptic leader Nigel Farage., one of the architects, along with Johnson, of the victory of the Brexit in the 2016 referendum, when 52% of Britons voted to leave the EU.
Much water has flowed under the bridge since then, but according to a survey published this week, only 30% of pro-Europeans have finished the psychological "mourning" of this break-up.
For Eurosceptics, however, it is a return to full sovereignty.
47 years of complicated relationship
The United Kingdom joined the European Economic Community – the predecessor of the EU – in 1973., after suffering two vetoes from France, in 1963 and 1967, concerned that it was a "Trojan horse" for the United States.
However The relationship between London and Brussels has always been complicated.: The British did not adopt the single currency or the free movement of people, they demanded a significant reduction in their share of the European budget and have always opposed further political integration.
Nevertheless, The result of the referendum surprised everyone and many explained it as a desperate reaction of those forgotten by globalization, who wanted to make their voices heard.
El Brexit The vote was scheduled to take place on March 29, 2019. But the struggle in Parliament between its supporters and its detractors led to more than three years of bitter debates and political deadlock.
The former prime minister, Theresa May, who worked his tail off negotiating a complicated agreement with Brussels and seeking an impossible adoption by his deputies, before resigning.
Then came the charismatic and controversial Johnson, who kept his promise to carry out Brexit thanks to the overwhelming majority he obtained in the early legislative elections in December.
Riding alone
As of Saturday, although little will actually change during the transition period planned until the end of December, the The United Kingdom will ride alone.
And the Prime Minister will have the difficult mission of Negotiate trade agreements with the EU and the United States, its greatest asset to replace its main trading partner.
"I'm optimistic because there were things that the United Kingdom had to do as a member of the EU" and "they will now be able to do them differently," said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday in London. "When they look back, they will see the enormous benefits for both of our nations," he added.
However Negotiations will not be easy: Washington will push for London to be more lax on health and environmental issues, while Brussels, fearing unfair competition, will demand that labour and environmental standards be respected.
"We will ask the British to avoid the 'fiscal dumping, social dumping, state aid"European negotiator Michel Barnier said in an interview with Spanish public television TVE, in which he also said that the 27 are now "cultivating unity" and no other country is talking about leaving the bloc.
Especially in Scotland, a semi-autonomous British nation that voted overwhelmingly against Brexit and where, by decision of its Parliament, the European flag will continue to fly.
And after that?
January 31: Brexit. Britain leaves the EU on Friday at 23:00 p.m. London time (GMT), three and a half years after Britons voted 52% to approve Brexit in a referendum in June 2016.
A transition period will begin immediately afterwards, maintaining the status quo at least until December 31.
However, the UK will no longer have a say in EU institutions and its 73 MEPs will have to give up their seats in the European Parliament, some of which will be redistributed among other member countries.
February-March: trade negotiations. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he is ready to start talks with Brussels on their future trading relationship on February 1, but other EU countries are still discussing what they want to get out of those negotiations.
Johnson said he wanted a free trade agreement along the lines of the one Canada has with the EU, without aligning itself with European rules.
European officials suggest ministers from the 27 member states could approve the negotiating mandate on February 25 and talks could begin around March 1.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that it will be very difficult to reach a complete treaty before the end of the year and that "priorities will have to be set."
According to a diplomatic source, Brussels would seek to reach agreements on fisheries, internal and external security and trade in goods in 2020. The rest could be left for later.
1 of July. The period of transition The contract is valid until 31 December, but the parties may extend it once if they wish, for between one and two years. However, this extension must be requested by 1 July at the latest.
Johnson insists he will not do so, saying his country must free itself from EU rules and regulations as soon as possible.
December 31: transition ends. Without an extension, the UK-EU relationship will end at the end of the year.
If they have reached an agreement by that date, they will enter into a new partnership.
Otherwise, cross-Channel trade, transport and a host of other links could be disrupted overnight, in a situation comparable to the no-deal Brexit that businesses had long feared.
No clear timetable: US Following Brexit, London wants to open trade talks with third countries, particularly the United States, the main alternative to its major European trading partner.
According to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, this agreement is a top priority for President Donald Trump, who hopes to achieve a result this year.
But several issues could complicate these talks, starting with the possible use by the British of the Chinese manufacturer of telecommunications equipment. Huawei, whom Washington is calling for to be marginalised, claiming that he is a spy for Beijing.
There is also the delicate question of A British tax on American internet giants, and Washington's possible desire to pressure London to abandon the Iran nuclear deal in exchange for trade concessions.
Source: AFP
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