The economy of Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to grow by 1,7% in 2019, a better performance than that estimated for this year, driven by a rebound in Brazil and despite the fact that a period of greater uncertainty is looming at a global level, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said on Thursday (19.12-2018).
Perspective
The region will end 1,2 with a 2018% expansion, according to the latest economic report of the year from ECLAC, in which it predicted the following:
Latin American and Caribbean countries will face a complex global economic scenarioor in the coming years, in which a reduction in the dynamics of growth is expected, both in developed countries and emerging economies, accompanied by an increase in the volatility of international financial markets, the document says.
The structural weakening of international trade, aggravated by trade tensions between the United States and China, will be another factor to face.
Central America (excluding Mexico) will grow 3,3% in 2019, South America 1,4% and the Caribbean 2,1%, is detailed.
The largest economies in the region, Brazil and Mexico, would grow by 2,0% and 2,1%, respectively.
BALANCE
In its 2018 review, the ECLAC report indicates that economic growth was led by domestic demandFixed investment showed a recovery dynamic, while private consumption remained the main source of growth, although a moderation in its growth rates has been observed since the second quarter of 2018.
Fiscal policy
In 2018, consolidation deepened and the fiscal adjustment process led to a reduction in the primary deficit (from 0,7% of GDP in 2017 to 0,6% of GDP in 2018), albeit accompanied by a small increase in public debt.
Vertical
ECLAC considers regional integration to be an indispensable element to break with inertia and advance export diversification and the transition towards a more knowledge-intensive export basket. The urgency of intensifying efforts aimed at moving towards an integrated regional market is even greater given the context of slowing growth, net capital outflows and growing protectionism that the region is facing, which will probably worsen in 2019, he notes.
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